基于Bayes时空分析探讨气象因素对手足口病的影响

Analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease based on Bayes spatial-temporal theory

目的 探讨气象因素对我国手足口病患病的影响.方法 采用层次Bayes模型[Besag,York,and Mollie’（BYM） model]对数据进行拟合,比较空间异质模型（UH）、空间相关模型（CH）和时空交互效应模型对数据的拟合效果,选取最优模型结合生态学分析手足口病的气象影响因素.结果 加入协变量的时空交互CH＋UH拟合效果较优（DIC=35 507.2）,降水量（RR=1.051 7,95％CI：1.050 4～1.052 5）、平均气压（RR=1.076 4,95％CI：1.074 8～1.077 9）、平均温度（RR=1.089 6,95％CI：1.078 1 ～ 1.106 9）、平均相对湿度（RR=1.089 0,95％CI：1.082 1 ～ 1.091 2）和日照时数（RR=1.085 l,95％CI：1.079 8～1.087 5）是手足口病的危险因素.结论 手足口病的发生具有时空聚集的特点,气象因素与手足口病的发生关系密切.

Objective To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease （HFMD） and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China.Methods Bayesian hierarchical model[Besag,York,and Mollie＆#39; （BYM） model] was used to fit the data.The fitting effects of uncorrelated heterogeneity （UH） model,correlated heterogeneity （CH） model and spatial and temporal interaction model were compared and the best model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.Results The UH ＋CH model with spatial and temporal interaction had best fitting effect （DIC=35 507.2）.Rainfall（RR=1.051 7,95% CI：1.050 4-1.052 5）,average temperature （RR=1.089 6,95% CI：1.078 1-1.106 9）,average relative humidity （RR=l.089 0,95%CI：1.082 1-1.091 2）,average air pressure （RR=l.076 4,95% CI：1.074 8-1.077 9） and hours of sunshine （RR=1.0851,95% CI：1.0798-1.0875） were the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.Conclusion The incidence of HFMD had spatial and temporal clustering characteristics.The meteorological factors were closely related with the incidence of HFMD.