西宁地区学校传染病疫情形势风险评估分析

Risk assessment for school infectious disease emergencies in Xining

目的依据西宁地区学校传染病突发公共卫生事件分析数据和监测结果,制定适合该地区学校传染病突发公共卫生事件的评估体系。方法收集并分析2007—2013年西宁地区学校传染病突发公共卫生事件数据;分析学校传染病发生、发展规律,同时通过风险评估方法划分学校传染病突发公共卫生事件的风险等级,依据风险等级提出防控建议。结果 2007—2013年学校传染病突发公共卫生事件主要以流感样病例暴发疫情(47.37%)为主,其次为水痘(21.05%)、流行性腮腺炎(14.04%)、手足口病(10.53%)、风疹(7.02%)。发生学校类型主要为城市中小学(75.44%),其他类型院校疫情发生风险相对较低。德尔菲法确定了西宁地区学校常见传染病为流感样病例及流感、水痘、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、风疹,Iindex值分别为100,62.5,97.5,82.5,40。结论西宁地区学校传染病突发公共卫生事件主要以呼吸道传染病为主,城市中小学为易发场所,学校开学期间是疫情的高发期。

Objective To evaluate infectious diseases emergencies in schools of Xining for improvement of more suitable school infectious disease risk assessment system. Methods Data of infectious diseases outbreaks in schools during 2007- 2013 was analyzed on the occurrence and pattern of infectious disease in schools. Risk assessment system was used to evaluate the risk ratings of school public health emergencies of infectious diseases. Results In 2007- 2013,school public health emergencies of infectious diseases were mainly influenza-like cases（ 47. 37%）,followed by chicken pox（ 21. 05%）,epidemic mumps（ 14. 04%）,hand-foot-mouth diseases（ 10. 53%） and rubella（ 7. 02%）. Most occurred in elementary and middle schools in urban areas（ 75.44%）. The Delphi method determined the priority of school common infectious diseases： influenza-like cases and flu,chicken pox,mumps,hand-foot-mouth disease and rubella. Index value was 100,62. 5,97. 5,82. 5 and 40,respectively. Conclusion School infectious disease emergencies are mainly respiratory infectious diseases in Xining and mostly occur in urban elementary and middle schools. Variation that occurs within pathogen may be causing an outbreak in school.