世界和中国原油贸易现状及对策建议

China's and the world's crude oil trading, and implied adjustments

2014年,世界石油行业继续保持原油生产西移北美、供应快速增长,炼油及消费东移亚洲、消费增速放缓的态势。供大于求的基本面和强势美元对油价的影响超过了地缘政治和金融投机,导致油价大幅跳水。石油国际贸易格局深化调整,贸易对家的强势地位已经发生反转,由过去的"资源为王"转向"消费主导"。我国原油贸易由注重供应安全转而更加关注价格因素,原油进口来源、贸易方式等逐步多元化,物流设施建设发展迅速。随着中国与世界石油市场联系不断增强,建议:1)抓住"一带一路"战略机遇,发展与石油资源国的合作,持续推进原油进口来源多元化和方式多样化;2)建立多层次、开放的原油交易市场,现货与期货相辅相成,争取更多的定价话语权;3)利用当前低油价形势,加快发展石油储备;4)提高人民币在石油国际结算中的地位,增强风险规避能力;5)建立国家石油产业发展基金,支持中国石油企业"走出去"获取资源和国际市场份额。

In 2014 the world's oil industry continued to maintain crude oil production movement westward to North America, and supply rose quickly. Meanwhile, oil refining and consumption moved westward to Asia and consumption acceleration slowed. The supply-greater-than-demand fundamental as well as the mighty US dollar's impact on oil prices exceeded regional politics' and financial speculation's in causing the oil price slump. Adjustment in international oil trading patterns deepened, with trading partners' strong positions having already reversed, from 'strength from resources' to 'the consumer calls the shots'. China's crude oil trading has switched from emphasizing supply security to paying ever closer attention to the price factor; crude oil import sources, trading patterns, etc. have steadily diversified and logistics infrastructure construction for oil trading has also been developing fast. As China's and the rest of the world's oil market contact increases, it is a good idea: 1) to grasp 'one belt one road' strategic opportunities to develop cooperation with oil-rich countries and a sustained advance in crude oil import diversity of sources and of trading patterns; 2) to establish a multilevel and open crude oil trading market with physical trading and futures, and to strive for more pricing power in the global oil market;3) to take advantage of current low oil prices to expedite the development of oil reserves; 4) to raise the status of the renminbi in international settlement of oil trades to increase price risk avoidance capability; 5) to establish a national oil industry development fund to support domestic oil enterprises going abroad to gain oil resources and international market share.