摘要
2014年,国内经济和石油需求增速均低于预期,但在新炼厂投产和商储需求的支撑下,原油净进口量首次突破3亿吨,增幅高达9.7%;石油净进口量增至3.205亿吨,进口依存度扩大至62.5%。炼油能力过剩的局面加重,2014年成品油进口量缩减1000余万吨,净进口量降低到仅70万吨,为23年来最低水平。LPG市场迎来"第二春",化工原料需求推动LPG进口量达710万吨,刷新历史最高纪录。进口天然气市场的扩张势头明显减弱,进口依存度升至31%。国际市场油气价格下跌利好中国增加进口,但国内经济发展的"新常态"、超过需求增长的油品供应能力和利润下降的压力,将迫使炼油业继续调整产品结构,加速淘汰低效产能,并进一步扩大成品油出口量。2015年中国可能重新变为成品油的净出口国。
In 2014 domestic economic and oil demand growth was lower than expected, but net crude oil imports hit 300 million tons for the fi rst time, at 9.7% the fastest percentage rate increase since 2010, thanks to support from new refi neries' coming on stream and commercial storage demand. As a result of the demand growth slowdown, the refining capacity surplus worsened, refined product imports decreased by more than 10 million tons and net product imports dropped to only 700,000 tons, the lowest level in 23 years. The liquid petroleum gas market saw the onset of a second spring, as LPG imports soared to a record 7.10 million tons thanks to strong demand for chemical feedstock. Natural gas market expansion momentum subsided, but import dependency still rose to 31%. The falling oil and gas prices are favorable to a rise in Chinese imports. However, in the domestic economy's 'new normal', product supply capacity is outpacing demand and the pressure on thinning margins could force the refi ning industry to continue adjusting product mix, accelerate eliminating inefficient capacity and further expand refined product export. China could again become a net oil-products exporter in 2015.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2015年第3期57-67,111,共11页
International Petroleum Economics
