在轨拦截器空间碎片碰撞概率算法

Algorithm of Collision Probability Between Orbit-Interception and Space Debris

分析了在轨拦截器空间飞行环境,就空间碎片的轨道分布和对拦截器安全飞行的影响,提出了空间碎片运动轨迹预报与确定的基本思路,针对在轨拦截器与空间碎片碰撞概率问题,提出了危险空间碎片筛选球形判据和搜索时间步长确定方法。利用TLE数据,针对5个卫星及其周围的空间碎片进行搜索计算,对本研究提出的在轨拦截器空间碎片碰撞概率模型合理性进行了验证。

The flight environment of the orbit-interception was analyzed. For the orbit distribution of the space debris and the influence on the interception safety flight, basic thought for forecasting and confirming the trajectory of the space debris was introduced. For the probability of collision between orbit-interception and space debris, spherical criterion to filtrate the dangerous space debris and method to confirm time searching step length were introduced. Searching and calculating 5 satellites and the space debris around them with TLE data, we verified the rationality of the model of the collision between the orbit-interception and the space debris introduced in this paper.