我国旅游业发展与第三产业增长之间的动态关系研究——基于中国1997-2012年数据的实证分析

On Dynamic Relationship between Chinese Tourism Development and Growth of the Tertiary Industry——The Empirical Analysis Based on Data from 1997 to 2012 in China

为探求旅游业发展与我国第三产业增长之间的关系,对影响我国旅游业发展和第三产业增长的因素进行分析,选取了1997-2012年度我国旅游总收入及第三产业增加值的时间序列数据,运用ADF检验、协整检验和Granger因果关系检验等方法对两者进行实证分析。结果表明:旅游业发展与我国第三产业增长之间存在正相关关系,并且在短期内两者存在显著的双向因果关系,表明旅游业发展与第三产业发展相互促进,但从长远看更多地表现为第三产业发展带动旅游业发展。据此提出了一些利于政府制定政策的启示。

To explore the relationship between the Chinese tourism development and the growth of its terti- ary industry, the factors affecting the development of those two industries were analyzed. Based on the total revenue of China＇ s tourism industry and the growth value of its tertiary industry between 1997 and 2012 and by using the methods of ADF testing, cointegration testing and Granger causality testing, an em- pirical analysis was conducted. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the development of the tourism industry and the tertiary industry, with a significant two - way causal relationship existing in the short term, indicating that the development of the two industries promote each other, but in the long run the development of the tertiary industry drives the development of the tourism industry, based on which, some proposals were made accordingly for the government to set up related policies.