福建省旅游消费影响因素的计量分析

Econometric Analysis of the Influence Factors of Tourism Consumption in Fujian Province

基于福建省1997—2012年的旅游消费相关数据,选取了人均GDP、旅游周转量、居民储蓄存款、汇率、邮政业务总量、城镇居民恩格尔系数等6个旅游消费影响因素,利用Eveiws5.0软件,建立最优多元线性回归模型,该模型通过了经济学、统计学和计量经济学检验。分析结果表明,旅游周转量、居民储蓄存款对福建旅游消费的影响尤其显著,从而得出发展经济是旅游业发展的根本途径、交通业的发展是旅游业发展重要保障的结论。

According to the revalant data of the tourism consumption from 1997 to 2012 in Fujian province, this paper chose six factors affecting consumption which were the per capita GDP, the turnover of tourism, the household saving deposits, the rate of exchange, the postal business volumes, the engel＇s coefficient of urban residents. It applied the software Eveiws5.0 to build the optimal multivariate regression model and this model was determined through the testing of economic meaning, statistics, econometrics. It showed that the factors of the turnover of tourism and the household saving deposits had an important influence on the consumption of the tourism in Fujian Province. It can be concluded that economic development is the fundamental way to tourism development and transport is an important guarantee for development of tourism industry.