应用灰色GM(1,1)模型的粮食产量预测研究

Prediction of Grain Yield Based on GM( 1,1) Model

粮食产量是关系到国计民生的头等大事,准确预测粮食产量有着非常重要的战略意义。选取我国2003—2013年11年间的粮食产量数据,应用灰色预测理论,建立我国粮食产量的GM(1,1)预测模型,对我国粮食产量进行中短期预测。结果表明:灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度很高,比较适合进行粮食产量的中短期预测;同时,未来几年我国粮食产量依然保持稳步增长。最后,提出了我国未来几年的粮食生产政策建议。

Grain yield is the most important thing for people＇s livelihood,so it has a very important strategic meaning to predict grain yield accurately. This paper selected the grain yield data of our country from 2003 to 2012,and established the grain yield model based on GM（ 1,1） model for short-term grain yield prediction of our country. The results show that the gray GM（ 1,1） model has a higher accuracy and is suitable for short-term grain yield prediction. Meanwhile,it will still keep a lasting steady-state growth in the next few years. Finally,the proposal of grain yield strategy was put forward in coming years.