能源价格与能源强度的耦合与内聚研究

Study on Coupling and Cohesion between Energy Price and Energy Intensity

借助能源价格调节效应模型,系统分析了能源价格通过能源消费结构、产业结构、技术进步等要素与能源强度产生的耦合关系;据此推广余情,利用通径分析研究了煤炭、汽油、柴油、电力价格的内聚程度和合理的能源价格结构。研究表明:能源价格通过技术效率、产业结构与能源强度形成耦合;能源价格影响能源强度的消费结构路径存在阻滞,其调节效用被完全覆盖;提高能源价格有助于强化技术进步对降低能源强度的作用、减弱产业结构重工业化对能源强度的正向拉动;能源价格通过产业结构路径产生的调节效用达到总效用的74.84%。进一步分析表明:能源价格结构的整体优化至关重要;煤炭价格的适度降低,汽油价格的均衡调节,柴油价格的小幅上涨,电力价格的市场回归最有利于发挥能源价格对降低能源强度的作用。

With the help of energy price regulation model, this paper analyzes relationship between energy price and energy intensity, which generated by energy consumption structure, industrial structure, technological progress and other factors. Besides, using path analysis to study the cohesion of coal, gasoline, diesel, electricity prices and explore rational energy price structure. Results show that ：energy price formation coupling with energy intensity through technology, industrial structure ; the path of consumption structure that energy price affect energy intensity exist of blocking, the adjustment is complete utility cover; raise energy price will help strengthen the role of technological progress to reduce energy intensity, weaken the positive effect that industrial structure impose on energy intensity; the adjustment that energy prices generated by the industry structure path can reach 74.84% of the total utility. Further it show that： the overall optimization of the energy price structure is crucial, moderately lower Coal prices, gasoline prices balance adjustment, diesel prices rose slightly, elec- tricity prices in the market return, are the most favorable.