中国能源强度差异与影响因素效应的分解研究

The Decomposition of District Energy Intensity Difference and Spatial Effects of Influence Factors in China

基于2000~2011年间中国大陆30个省市区的面板数据,对中国地区能源强度进行了差异测算与分解,发现中国地区能源强度的差异正在逐渐扩大,这种差异主要表现为区域内各省份之间的差异,而区域间差异是次要的因素。通过检验地区能源强度的空间相关性,发现各地区的能源强度之间存在显著的空间正相关关系。并用空间计量方法分析了多种因素对于地区能源强度的影响作用,对各影响因素的空间效应进行了分解研究,发现各影响因素不仅会影响本地的能源强度,还会对其相邻地区的能源强度产生显著影响。

Based on provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2011, this paper measures the difference of district energy intensity in China, and performs the decomposition of the difference, using Theil index decomposition method and spatial e- conometric model. The results show that the difference of district energy intensity, which is measured by Theil index, is in- creasingly greater over time and provincial difference in all regions is the major cause of the total difference of district energy intensity in China. It tests the spatial correlation of district energy intensity in China. The result shows that there exists a significant and positive spatial correlation in district energy intensity of China. Finally, using spatial econometric models, it investigates the effects of influence factors of district energy intensity of China. All influence factors not only influence local energy intensity, but also influence the energy intensities in the neighboring districts.