地震压埋人员分布评估方法初探

Assessment of buried people distribution after earthquake

破坏性地震发生后,有效地评估地震压埋人员的分布,是科学、有序应急处置和救援的基础。本文利用5.12汶川8.0级地震的资料,在已有的人员伤亡评估方法基础上,考虑了地震初期灾情信息以及影响地震人员压埋率的主要参数,如行政区域等级、设防烈度、搜救影响等,对这些影响参数进行系统研究,初步构建了地震初期压埋人员分布的评估方法。在此基础上,采用GIS平台,集成了基于公里网单元的基础数据作为算例,对5.12汶川8.0地震、4.20芦山7.0地震、4.14玉树7.1地震进行了压埋人员分布评估,评估结果与地震实际人员伤亡情况进行了对比,表明方法的有效性。该方法可为地震应急救援决策提供了技术支持。

After the destructive earthquake, the correct decisions would be supported by estimating the number and distribution of buried people. How to estimate the number and distribution of buried people distribution is directly related to the efficiency of rescue and emergency. With the relevant data of earthquake, such as Wenchuan earth- quake, and the existing methods of assessing casualties, taking into account the limited information in the early stage of earthquake, we researched the main factors affecting the buried rate, such as the regional administrative level, the fortification intensity, the rescue, etc ; and constructed the method of assessing the buried people. Then, using GIS, some results are given based on the data in kilometer grid, which would be benefit to the earthquake e- mergency rescue.