基于CGE模型的我国民用飞机政策影响分析

Policy Analysis of Chinese Civil Aircraft Based on CGE Model

针对民用飞机在研发制造和销售运营两个阶段的国家综合政策,基于2007年投入产出表,建立了用于民用飞机相关政策分析的可计算一般均衡模型,并利用这一模型模拟了综合政策冲击。模拟结果表明,国家税收优惠、投资补贴是促进民用飞机发展的关键因素,上下游产业产出的增长对民用飞机起到了积极的带动作用,加大研发投入是刺激民用飞机兴起的有效途径。根据模拟结果提出政策建议,为制定民用飞机政策提供理论依据。

In light of our national comprehensive policy of civil aircraft during two stages, namely researching ＆ manufacturing and marketing ＆ operating, based on the input-output table of 2007, this study built up a comput-able general equilibrium model for the analysis of related policy of civil aircraft to simulate the effect of compre-hensive policy. Results show that the taxation preferences and investment subsidies are the key factors for promot-ing civil aircraft development and the output growth in upstream-downstream industries play a positive leading role in developing civil aircraft. It maintains that the increase of investment in researching is the effective solution to stimulating civil aircraft rising. According to the simulation results, it finally puts forward policy suggestions to provide theoretical basis for civil aircraft policy.