基于能值理论的西藏生态经济系统评价

Tibet eco-economic system evaluation based on emergy theory

基于能值理论,对西藏生态经济系统2003～2012年的发展状况进行评述,研究显示：可更新能值明显高于不可更新能值,且没有太大变动,保持在5.40E＋ 23sej左右,略微上升;不可更新能值呈明显上升趋势,上升率为217.5％;总能值呈明显上升趋势,上升率达19.5％.可更新能值中地球能源约占98％,其他由高到低依次为畜产品、农产品、林产品.其中畜产品呈明显上升趋势,2003年为4.71E＋ 21sej,2012年达到6.97E ＋21sej;农产品在波动中逐渐增加,由2003年的3.78E＋ 21sej达到2012年的4.50E＋ 21 sej;林产品比重较小.货币流中进口能值高于出口能值,均表现为上升趋势.将其指标归为能值来源和社会、经济以及自然亚系统四个不同体系.结果表明西藏发展主要依赖于环境,近年来逐渐转向外界及经济系统;近10年经济不断发展,人民生活水平提高,工业化速度加快,逐渐向现代化、城市化迈进;生态经济系统面临较大的压力.

Based on Energy Theory complete reviews Tibet 2003 ～ 2012 eco-economic system development status,in which renewable emergy is significantly higher than the nonrenewable emergy,and there is not much change,keeps in about 5.40E ＋ 23sej,manifested as a slight rise; nonrenewable emergy of the clear upward trend,rising rate of 217.5％ ; total energy value also showed obvious upward trend,rising rate of 19.5％.The global emergy accounted for more than 98％ in the renewable emergy,other values ？？ in descending order for livestock products,agricultural products,forest products.And wherein the livestock showing a rising trend,2003 is 4.71E ＋21sej,and 2012 is 6.97E ＋ 21sej; then gradually increase in the volatility of agricultural products from 3.78E ＋ 21sej in 2003 to 4.50E ＋ 21sej in 2012; smaller proportion of forest products.Import value is higher than the export value in currency stream,all showed an upward trend.In addition,the indicators are distinguished as four different system of its emergy source and social,economic and natural sub system.The conclusions show the development of Tibet is mainly dependent on the environment,but gradually turned to the outside world and economic systems in recent years; nearly 10 years of economic development,people＇s living standards improve,industrialization speed up,gradually moving towards modernization,urbanization; the eco-economic system faces large pressures.