顾客行为和生产能力限制的牛鞭效应分析

Modelling and Analysis of Bullwhip Effect with Customers' Behaviours and Production Capacity Constraint

针对顾客行为和生产能力限制的牛鞭效应,建立了系统动力学模型.通过对比仿真数据与历史数据,验证了该模型的有效性,并给出了顾客行为和生产能力策略对牛鞭效应的影响规律:对于敏感型的顾客,调整生产能力会放大牛鞭效应;对于非敏感型的顾客,调整生产能力能够保持市场份额不变而降低库存水平.通过分析顾客行为和管理者生产能力策略与牛鞭效应的相互关系,结果表明:制造企业应该根据不同的顾客行为制定相应的生产策略;管理者应该致力于长远发展,而不能因为短期满足顾客需求的行为导致长期内顾客服务水平下降;制造企业需要做好降低库存成本和抑制牛鞭效应之间的平衡.

A system dynamics model was established hereto and validated by comparing simulation results with practical data from a tool manufacturer in Shanghai. Then the sequent oscillation characteristics of stochastic demand information were analyzed. For sensitive customer, adjustment of production capacity amplifies the bullwhip effect. For insensitive customer, adjustment of production capacity decreases the in- ventory level with stable market segment share. Based on these principles, it is concluded that suitable production strategy should be performed in accordance with different customers＇ behaviors. It is necessary to promote customer service in the long run without adjusting the production capacity instantly. A ballance should be stricken between decreasing the inventory cost and dampening the bullwhip effect.