居住模式与中国城镇化——基于土地供给视角的经验研究

Housing Models and Urbanization in China-Empirical Research from the Perspective of Land Supply

如何解释地方政府在中国快速城镇化与经济发展过程中所扮演的积极角色,为什么城市高企的房价没有抑制外来人口的持续流入?从土地供给角度对地方政府推动城镇化内在机制的探讨,将地方政府在土地市场上的干预行为具体化为扩张工业用地供应、相对缩减住宅用地供应,并以新增常住人口的居住模式选择为切入点,建立适合解释中国城镇化的空间均衡模型,进行理论研究和实证检验。研究发现,中国特色的城镇化道路,可以用新增常住人口居住在价格低廉的非普通商品房为主的模式来解释,工业用地扩张推动城市常住人口增长、房价上升,但降低了工资水平。

How are we to explain the active role of local government in China's rapid urbanization and economic development? And why is it that the soaring price of city housing has not checked the constant inflow of migrants from elsewhere? We use a land supply perspective to investigate how local governments engage the internal mechanisms of urbanization,intervening specifically in the land market to increase the supply of land for industrial use at the expense of land for housing.Our entry point is the housing model choice of newly arrived permanent residents,which we use to build a spatial equilibrium model equipped to interpret Chinese urbanization with the help of both theoretical research and empirical tests.It will be seen that the road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics can be explained by a model involving the fact that the newly arrived permanent population lives mainly in low-priced housing outside the commercial market.The increased industrial use of land has driven an increase in the permanent population and raised urban house prices,but has lowered wages.