基于贸易视角的中国大豆产业安全分析

China's Soybean Industry Safety Analysis Based on the Perspective of Trade

目前,中国大豆出口贸易量极低,而进口贸易量在较高水平的基础上仍不断攀升,且进口贸易被跨国公司控制,这样的贸易现状对大豆产业安全造成了影响。通过设置大豆产业安全状态的警限范围,计算大豆产业安全指标值到安全状态的映射值,最终得出大豆产业安全度综合指数的方法对中国大豆产业安全状况进行了测算。结果显示:2000年以来,我国大豆产业安全一直处于"危机"状态,并有进一步恶化的趋势,主要原因是中国大豆生产量与消费量、出口量与进口量相差悬殊,并且其差距仍在继续扩大。

At present, China＇ s soybean export trade is extremely low, while the import trade is still rising on the basis of a higher level and controlled by multinational companies, such trade status has an impact on soybean industry security. By set- ting the alarm limit range of soybean industry security state, calculating mapping value of soybean industry safety, finally ob- taining the comprehensive index of soybean industry security degree, the paper estimated the safety condition of Chinese soy- bean industry. The results showed that since 2000, China＇ s soybean industry security has been in a state of ＂＂ crisis＂, and has the trend of deterioration, the main reason is there exists a disparity of China soybean＇ s production and consumption, exports and imports, and the gap is still intermittent expansion.