2014年国内外禽蛋市场回顾及未来展望

Poultry Eggs Markets at Home and Abroad in 2014and Their Outlooks

2014年,受整体宏观经济环境以及消费需求等因素影响,禽蛋产量略有增长,为2 894万t,同比增长0.6%,为近5年来较低增长水平;在供需情况以及季节性因素等的综合影响下,禽蛋均价创历史新高,达10.83元/kg,同比上涨9.4%。蛋鸡配合饲料价格同比上涨,蛋雏鸡价格同比上涨;蛋料价格比涨幅明显,蛋鸡养殖效益较好。全年禽蛋进口规模减少,出口规模增长,贸易顺差明显。预计2015年,随着在产蛋鸡存栏量的不断增加,禽蛋产量将会增加,鸡蛋供给趋于宽松,蛋价仍有一定的下行空间。短期来看,受冬季天气寒冷、肉类消费对鸡蛋替代性增强影响,预计2016年春节前蛋价将会继续回落;春节期间,在节日消费的提振下,蛋价有望小幅反弹,春节后蛋价仍有下跌空间。

In 2014, affected by the overall macroeconomic environment and consumer demand, the production of China＇s poultry eggs increased to 28.94 million tons, with a five-year lower growth rate at 0.6%. For the influences from the supply and demand situation and seasonal factor, the average price of China＇s poultry eggs hit a record high, up to 10.83 yuan per kilogram, increasing by 9.4%. The formula feed prices of laying hens rose compared with last year, as well as layer chicken prices. The price rate of egg and feed rose significantly and laying hens made good breeding profits. The imports of poultry eggs decreased, while the exports grew, which led to evident trade surplus. Looking forward to 2015, with the increasing stock of laying hens, poultry eggs production will increase, egg supply will tend to be loose and eggs prices are likely to go down in some extent. In the short term, due to the cold winter weather and enhancing consumption substitute of meat for egg, eggs prices will continue falling before the Spring Festival in 2016. During the Spring Festival, eggs prices are expected to rebound slightly by festival consumption, and after that, the prices will still have room to fall.