以潜在增长率确定中国经济增长速度目标

Setting China’s Growth Target Based on the Potential Growth Rate

与其他预测经济增长的方法不同．本文从人口红利的角度出发。估计了中国的潜在增长率及其变化趋势。基于潜在增长率制定未来中国经济增长目标，并且以官方的名义作为非约束性的预期目标予以发布．将具有引导社会预期的效果。这种做法不仅有利于政府制定适当的政策、引导经济增长方向和速度。也有利于消费者．生产者和投资者形成必要和切合实际的信心和预警，按照潜在增长率的预测值，我们建议在“十三五”时期将GDP增长率的预期目标定为6．5％-7％。

Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a growth target. Official promulgation of non-binding targets will guide social expectation, assist in government policy-making, boost confidence in consumers, and provide guidance for producers and investors. Based on our estimation results, we suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, a GDP growth target between 6. 5% and 7% would be appropriate.