2015-2025年中国潜在经济增长率预测及政策建议

China’s Potential Economic Growths during 2015-2025 under Different Scenarios~

2025年之前是中国经济进一步扩大规模和调整结构的关键时期。本文在综合考虑了未来影响中国经济潜在增长的若干主要因素及其传导机制的基础上。构建了一个系统动力学计量经济学-投入产出综合经济系统模型，对2025年中国经济规模和结构变化进行了预测。结果显示：2025年之前中国经济可保持年均5.7％-7．2％之间的潜在增长。面对发达经济体可能低速增长的国际环境以及新增劳动力将逐渐减少的国内情况，2015-2025年中国经济要实现6．6％-7．4％的乐观情景增长，需要进一步推进城镇化进程，加强研发和教育投入，提高全要素生产率，大力发展第三产业，努力扩大消费，在经济规模扩大的同时．实现产业结构的升级和投资消费结构的改善。

China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.