基于异方差性的西藏农牧民消费函数构建

The Construction of Tibet Farmers and Herdsmen Consumption Function Based on Heteroscedasticity

本文运用西藏1980-2013年统计数据,对西藏农牧民消费行为进行异方差分析,表明随着西藏农牧民收入增长,其消费呈现明显异方差性。通过研究认为,导致异方差性的原因除了消费随收入增加不确定性逐渐增大之外,还与西藏农牧民消费规律变化有关。为此,在引入反映消费规律变化的虚拟变量后,并采用加权最小二乘法克服了模型的异方差性,由此建立的农牧民消费函数表明西藏农牧民消费在2007年前后发生了较大变化,2007年后农牧民边际消费倾向明显降低,说明其消费选择增多,生活状况改善。

Analysis of Tibet Farmers/herders consumption behavior using statistics from 1980 to 2013 shows obvious heteroscedasticity of the consumption with the growth of income. Further research shows that onecause of Heteroscedasticity is the consumption increase is uncertainty with the increase of income, and anotheris related to Tibet farmers and herdsmen consumption rule changes. Therefore, the dummy variable is introducedinto the reflection of consumer rules change, and by using the weighted least squares method overcomes the het-eroscedasticity of model, thus, farmers and herdsmen consumption function established. It shows that Tibet farm-ers and herdsmen consumption has greatly changed in 2007 and after 2007 the number of the farmers and herds-men in the marginal propensity to consume is significantly reduced, indicating that its consumption choices andliving conditions are improved.