基于前景理论的工程建设方案灰靶评价方法

Grey target evaluation method for engineering construction scheme based on prospect theory

考虑决策者的风险态度对工程建设方案评价的影响,及工程建设方案评价过程本身具有的不确定性和决策环境的复杂性,提出基于前景理论的工程建设方案灰靶评价方法。首先,运用"奖优罚劣"[-1,1]线性变化算子对效果样本矩阵进行规范化处理;然后,确定正、负靶心,以正、负靶心系数为参考点计算前景价值函数,进而以各方案的综合前景值最大化构建权重函数优化模型,求解模型确定最优权重向量,再通过计算各建设方案的综合前景值大小来对工程建设方案进行排序;最后,以某市改建城市主干道工程建设方案评价为例进行分析,利用该方法得出的评价结果与实际情况比较一致。

Considering the impact on the engineering construction scheme evaluation from risk attitudes, and uncertainty and complexity in decision -making environments, grey target evaluation method for engineering construction scheme was proposed by basing on prospect theory. Firstly, the linear transformation operator with the features of the ＂rewarding good and punishing bad＂ was used to standardize the original decision -making matrix. Second, the positive and negative clouts was determined, the positive and negative clouts coefficient were taken as a reference point to solve the prospect value function. The nonlinear planning model for the maximum of comprehensive prospect value of each engineering construction scheme was established. Then the optimum weight vector is solved and the order of each engineering construction scheme is determined. Finally, a city rebuilt the city main road construction scheme evaluation was taken as a example for analysis, and the evaluation resuits were in according with actual situation.