集装箱班轮公司航次运力销售过程优化模型

Sales process optimization model of voyage capacity for container line

基于种群演变和共生理论，采用 Cobb-Douglas 生产函数描述航运市场整体需求，从顾客的购买行为出发，以收益最大作为集装箱班轮公司的经营目标，以基于时间序列的运力与运价作为决策变量，构建了集装箱班轮公司航次运力销售过程优化模型。运用 Taylor 公式与最小二乘法等代数变换手段将非线性规划问题转化为线性规划问题，对关键参数进行了标定与敏感性分析，并利用MATLAB 软件进行仿真验证。仿真结果表明：当单个集装箱班轮公司的运力为104 TEU 时，采用常规的销售策略，集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力为7534～9966 TEU，获得收益为1233158～12915936 USD，采用提出的优化模型，可售出的运力为9915 TEU，获得收益为15111975 USD，收益至少提高17％；当2个集装箱班轮公司的运力均为104 TEU 时，采用提出的优化模型，2个集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力分别为9920、9947 TEU，获得收益分别为14241771、9737528 USD，达到纳什均衡；当3个集装箱班轮公司的运力均为104 TEU 时，采用提出的优化模型，3个集装箱班轮公司可售出的运力分别为8289、5526、6034 TEU，获得收益分别为6755755、6119906、4377758 USD，达到纳什均衡。可见提出的模型可描述多个集装箱班轮公司运力销售情况，且表现出显著的优化效果。

On the basis of species evolution and symbiosis theory,the Cobb-Douglas production function was used to describe the whole demand of shipping market,the purchasing behavior of customer was taken as starting point,the maximum revenue was taken as the operation target of container line,the carrying capacity and freight rate based on time series were taken as decision variables,and the sales process optimization model of voyage capacity for container line was set up.The algebraic transformation means such as Taylor formula and least square method were employed to transform nonlinear programming problem to linear programming problem.The calibration and sensitivity analysis of key parameters were carried out,and MATLAB software was used to perform the simulation verification.Simulation result indicates that when the＆amp;nbsp;carrying capacity of single line is 104 TEU,the container line can sell 7 534-9 966 TEU and obtain 1 233 158-12 915 936 USD by using the regular sales scheme.By using the proposed model,the container line can sell 9 915 TEU and obtain 15 111 975 USD,and the revenue increases by 17%at least.When the carrying capacities of two lines are both 104 TEU,the two lines can sell 9 920, 9 947 TEU and obtain 14 241 771,9 737 528 USD respectively by using the proposed model,and Nash equilibrium is achieved.When the carrying capacities of three lines are all 104 TEU,the three lines can sell 8 289,5 526,6 034 TEU and obtain 6 755 755,6 119 906,4 377 758 USD respectively by using the proposed model,and Nash equilibrium also is achieved.Obviously,the proposed model can describe the sale situations of voyate capacities for multi-container lines and exhibit the significant optimization effect.1 tab,18 figs,24 refs.