基于分离净现值法的水电项目估值模型

Valuation Model for Hydropower Project Based on Decoupled Net Present Value Method

针对在水电项目投资决策分析方法中,实物期权法和折现现金流法将项目风险与时间价值结合可能会使项目价值评估结果歪曲的问题,从现金流入和流出两个方面界定水电项目的风险影响因素,在此基础上构建以分离净现值法为核心的投资估值模型。并运用保险概念与Mont Carlo模拟计算项目的分离净现值作为评价水电项目可行性的依据,案例分析表明,该决策工具为水电项目的投资决策分析提供了新的思路和方法。

Valuation methodology such as real option and discount cash flow method will distort the evaluation due to lumping risk with the time value.The risk factors of hydropower projects were defined from both inflows and outflows;thereby an invest-ment valuation model was established with Decoupled Net Present Value method as the core.Insurance concept and Mont Carlo simulation were used to calculate the Decoupled Net Present Value.Case study shows that this decision-making tool provides a new approach for investment decisions of hydropower projects.