基于VDDT的红原县草地景观动态变化模拟

Dynamic simulation of landscape change using VDDT in Hongyuan County

利用ENVI软件对2000和2010年红原县遥感影像进行解译,建立红原县草地资源数据库。设定9种干扰变化的驱动因子,利用VDDT以2000到2001年草地景观转换概率和干扰因子出现情况,对2020年红原县草地景观的动态变化进行模拟分析。结果表明,VDDT在模拟红原县草地景观变化动态中具有较高的可行性(斑块面积拟合度为0.9325,斑块数目拟合度为0.8833)。通过对影响草地景观格局变化的主要因子进行分析,表明红原县草地具有明显退化趋势。

Based on remote sensing images of Hongyuan County collected between 2000 and 2010, a landscape classification map and grassland resource database were produced using ENVI software. In addition, 9 disturb- ance types were chosen to simulate the landscape succession to the year 2020 using the United States depart- ment of Agriculture Vegetation Dynamics Development （VDDT） tool based on the transition probability for 2000--2001. The results showed that： 1） In the 20 years, grassland decreased by about 824 km2 , and forest by 191 km2 , however, the unutilized area was predicted to increase by about 89km2 2） The VDDT tool provided an acceptable simulation of the landscape succession as indicated by the Hongyuan County land use maps for 2000 and 2010 [R2 =0. 9325（Area）, R2 =0. 8833（Number）]; 3） The simulation showed an obvious degenera- tion trend for grassland in Hongyuan county. Factors affecting the future landscape pattern and rate of grass- land degeneration were also analyzed.