辽宁沿海工业园区生产性服务业发展系统动力学仿真研究——以葫芦岛市北港开发区为例

Simulation of Dynamic Development of Industrial Park of Productive Service Industry——A Case Study of Hu Lu Dao Bei Gang Industrial Park

自2009年辽宁沿海经济带发展上升为国家战略以来,辽宁沿海六市的43个工业园区在基础设施、装备制造、产业集聚等方面都实现了快速发展。伴随着信息技术、服务经济、创新体系等概念的不断深入,辽宁沿海工业园区也需要在更高层面上实现转型升级。从发达地区经验和自身实际看,辽宁沿海工业园区的发展出路在于生产性服务业的突破。为此,运用系统动力学理论,选取制造业、劳动力、园区财政、生产性服务业供求等要素,构建了辽宁沿海工业园区生产性服务业发展模型。同时,以葫芦岛市北港开发区为例,对其2012—2020年发展趋势进行了仿真模拟。结果表明,园区生产性服务业的各项相关指标在仿真期内保持了增长势头,但各指标之间则彼此联系,相互影响,发展趋势和幅度既有共性也存在一定差异。

Since 2009 the Liaoning coastal economic belt development rose to national strategy, 43 Industrial Parks of six cities in Liaoning have a- chieved rapid development in infrastructure, equipment manufacturing, industrial agglomeration etc. Along with the concept of information technolo- gy, the service economy, the deepening of innovation system, Industrial Park needs to realize the transformation and upgrading in a higher level. Looking from the actual experience of developed regions, Development way of Liaoning coastal industrial park is the productive service industry breakthrough. Using system dynamics theory, selection of manufacturing, finance, labor , producer services supply and demand factors, the con- struction of the development of Liaoning Coastal Industrial Park production services model. This model takes the Huludao Beigang industrial zone as an example, on the 2012 - - 2020 the development trend of the simulated. The results show that the production service industry of park maintained a growth momentum in the simulaiion period, but the subsystems are interrelated and influence each other, development trend and magnitude of both common and there are certain differences.