激发电力产业市场潜能:对电网调度“虚拟集聚”的探索

Excitation Power Industry Market Potential:The Study of Power Grid Dispatching Virtual Cluster

在清洁能源政策的推动下,电力产业正面临一场"能源革新"即清洁能源(如风电、太阳能、核电等)对传统能源(如火电)的挑战。本文以风电为例,通过理论分析给出推行政策会刺激市场对清洁能源的需求、使产业经济效益得到提升。此外,着重研究电网公司在接纳风电的情况下,是否可以通过创新调度方法:"虚拟集聚"把握市场潜力,在电网安全运行的基础上,使整个产业经济效益达到提升。不同区域的风电场市场潜能对电网调度"虚拟集聚"的重要性和影响不同,本文创建包括三级别市场的空间计量模型和"门槛效应"相关检验,使用2008—2013年各省份相关风电场月度数据,从自然条件、网架结构和相关区域理论,探究市场潜能与集聚效应的关系,通过计量结果着重分析并给出"虚拟集聚"的重要性和对电力市场改革的影响。本文意在通过"虚拟集聚"解决电力产业中清洁能源与传统能源之间的矛盾,有效推动清洁能源政策,激发市场潜能,对国家重塑清洁能源产业格局的宏观计划给出前瞻性建议。

Clean energy policies guide the market potential of excitation.The market potential excavates energy revolution.Today,there are many industry overcapacity,the phenomenon of supply exceeds demand,how to stimulate the market demand is a hotspot of research on industry,clean energy policies for national construction sustainable development not only has a positive effect,also promote industry ascension has great economic benefit.Driven by the clean energy policy,electric power industry is facing ＂energy innovation＂ which is the clean energy（such as wind,solar,nuclear,etc.） challenging traditional energy sources（such as thermal power）.Analyzing from the economic side,the use of clean energy and development may bring new development and opportunities.Clean energy,the electric power industry from industry level,could guide the electric power industry in the generation of upgrade.Again,because of electric power industry which has the complete chain pattern,the upgrade will drive the whole industry economic benefit of ascension.Taking wind power as an example（Wind power in northeast area as an example,the abundant wind resources can stimulate the market of consumers,while some scholars believe that the construction of a wind power costs are higher than that of coal-fired power,however,under the support of national policy,the wind of the high economic efficiency has been proved by many scholars.）,the article use the theoretical analysis to give the answer that whether or not implementing policy will stimulate demand and improve industrial economic benefit.Moreover,the studies of this paper,under the condition of the grid power company accepting of wind power,whether scheduling methods ＂virtual cluster＂ can be innovated to grasp the market potential and make the whole industry promote economic benefit under safety.Moreover,the ＂ virtual cluster＂ can make the entire system of grid level up.The importance and influence of the market potential of different Wind farms in different areas are different to grid scheduling ＂virtual cluster＂.In order to explain how to deal with this issue,this paper creates include three levels market spatial econometric model and related inspection ＂threshold effect＂,use the 2008-2013 monthly provinces data related to wind farms,from natural conditions,space truss structure and related regional theory,explore the relationship between the market potential and agglomeration effect.Furthermore,the three levels can be considered as different area which is new idea of grid definition.Through analysis measurement,the results are analyzed,the importance of ＂virtual cluster＂ is given and the influence of the reform of electric market as well.Policy implications of the article：utilizing ＂ virtual cluster＂ to solve the contradiction between clean energy in electric power industry and the traditional energy.The paper aims to promote clean energy policy effectively,stimulate the market potential,and give strategic advice to the plan of Clean energy reshape industry pattern.On the other hand,the paper also considers that ＂energy innovation＂ will motivate the market potential and agglomeration effect,and the structure changing.The structure changing is,what former presents,the new idea of changing power grid systems.This paper can be concluded from the perspective of spatial economics analysis,dividing power grid structure and regional arrangement of dispatching work is higher than the existing division of provincial power grid structure and scheduling work efficiency.On the other hand,it is a higher economic efficiency.Because this article＇s sample space is limited,which only concluded northeast and northwest regions,the article may not give accurate demonstration.However,with future sample expansion,the rise of offshore wind power generation,power grid regional scheduling planning assumptions will be more clear and reasonable.