全球生产网络背景下中美贸易失衡透析——基于附加值贸易核算法的研究

The Study of Sino-US Trade Imbalance in Context of General Production Network Systems: a Value-Added Approach

贸易转移现象导致海关统计难以反映真实的双边贸易净额。文章基于最终消费品价值来源分解的视角构建了多国双边附加值贸易统计模型和海关统计模型,从总量、产业、行业3个层面比较分析了两种统计方式下的中美贸易差额。结果显示:海关统计始终高估中美贸易顺差额,平均幅度为20%,各产业的贸易失衡状况也存在不同程度的扭曲;在附加值贸易统计方式下顺差的产业结构有所改善,知识密集型制造业取代劳动密集型制造业成为顺差的最大来源。

It is increasingly difficult for traditional customs statistics to reflect the true trade balance for the reason of trade diversion.From final demand perspective,this paper constructs a multinational value-added trade model and a customs statistics model and comparatively analyzes Sino-US trade balance at three levels respectively( viz.,total trade,industry and business). Results show that customs statistics overestimate Sino-US value-added trade balance by an average degree of 20%,and distortion that exits in trade imbalances of each industryis serious. According to the value-added trade statistics model,the industrial structure in those industries with trade surplus is improved; to be more specific,knowledge intensive manufacturing has replaced labor-intensive industry as the biggest source of surplus.