中产阶级促进了经济增长吗?——基于俄罗斯转型时期的经验研究

Do middle classes bring economic growth? empirical research from the transitional period of Russia

近年来，中产阶级崛起引起了学术界的日益关注，但关注点主要在中产阶级的社会政治影响上，而忽略了其对经济增长的作用。为了对这一问题进行探究，文章首先根据俄罗斯纵向监测调查数据，采用相对标准测算出俄罗斯1994～2012年8个区域的中产阶级规模，然后利用面板数据模型实证考察了转型时期俄罗斯中产阶级对经济增长的影响。结果显示，中产阶级与经济增长之间存在显著的正向关系，这说明中产阶级能够促进经济增长。研究还发现，尽管中产阶级在总体上促进了经济增长，但其内部群体对经济增长影响存在差异，市场型中产阶级与经济增长存在显著的正向关系，而非市场型中产阶级与经济增长存在显著的负向关系。

In recent years,the rise of middle class has attracted increasing attention in academia,which however is mainly focused on its social and political impact,with its effect on economic growth being ignored. To explore this issue,this paper uses the data of The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to examine the effects on economic growth of the middle class; and measures the size of the middle class in eight regions of Russia from 1994 to 2012. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between a middle class and economic growth,which in turn demonstrates that a middle class can promote economic growth. The study also finds although a middle class as a whole is conducive to economic growth,its internal groups nonetheless have different impacts on economic growth; a market-oriented middle class has a significant positive relationship with economic growth,while a non-market-oriented middle class will have a significant negative relationship with economic growth.