沿海省区发展海工装备制造业的潜力评价研究

Evaluation on the Development Potential of Marine Equipment Manufacturing in China's Coastal Areas

海洋资源、空间争夺日益激烈,海工装备制造业成为各沿海国家及地区的战略性支柱产业。广阔的市场前景和有利的政策支撑下,我国沿海省区掀起海工装备基地建设热潮。以我国沿海省区为研究对象,从市场需求、相关产业和发展环境支撑能力三个方面构建了海工装备制造业发展潜力评价模型及评价指标体系,运用AHP和相关系数赋权法对其海工装备制造业发展潜力进行评价。结果表明:各指标与产业发展潜力的相关程度存在较大差距,改善产业发展环境可以有效提高产业的发展潜力;各省区发展海工装备制造业的潜力来源各有侧重,突出地区优势有助于协调区域资源配置实现产业快速健康发展;运用K-均值聚类分析,将沿海省区按照发展潜力划分3个等级有利于地区产业发展途径的选择。

With the increasingly fierce contention marine resources and space, marine equipment manufacturing （re- ferred to as MEM） industry has become a strategic pillar industry of the coastal countries and regions. In the context of broad market prospects and favorable policy, the coastal provinces set off a building boom of marine equipment base. From the three support aspects of the industry, market demand, industry and the development environment, the paper builds a model and index system to evaluate MEM development potential, and applies AHP and correlation coefficient method to evaluate marine equipment manufacturing industry development potential. The results show that： there is a big gap of the relevance between various indicators and industrial development potential; improving the industrial develop- ment environment can effectively increase the development potential; the MEM development potential in coastal areas has different sources; stressing regional advantages can contribute to coordinating regional resources configuration and reali- zing rapid and healthy industrialization; based on K - means clustering analysis, the coastal provinces are divided into three classes according to the development potential, which is conducive to choosing proper regional industrial develop- ment pathway.