技术进步、产业结构变动与中国的二氧化碳排放——基于省际面板数据的经验分析

Technological Progress,Industrial Structure Change and Carbon Dioxide Emissions—An Empirical Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

通过相关理论梳理,探讨了技术进步、产业结构变动及其互动作用对中国碳排放的影响,并运用面板数据模型,就技术、产业结构因素及其互动作用对中国碳排放的效应进行检验。结果发现:(1)技术进步对碳排放具有抑制作用,产业结构变动促进了碳排放,但前者对碳排放的影响程度要远低于后者。(2)2个因素对碳排放的作用存在时间和地区上的差异,随着时间推移,技术进步对碳排放的作用有所增强,产业结构变动的碳排放效应则减弱;沿海地区技术进步的减排效果显著大于内陆地区,产业结构变动对内陆地区的碳排放影响则更大。(3)技术与结构因素的交互效应对碳排放具有抑制作用,分时期和分区域的子样本进一步验证了这种交互效应的稳健性。为理解中国碳排放的变化提供了新的视角,对如何统筹技术与结构性因素,实现经济增长和环境保护的双赢也具有启示意义。

Combing through the theory, the paper discusses the impact of technological progress, industrial structure change and their interaction on China＇s carbon emissions. Moreover, it uses panel data model to analyze the effect of tech- nology progress, industry structure factors and their interaction on China＇s carbon emissions, The results show that： （1） technical progress is ability to restrain carbon emissions, industrial structure change can promote carbon emissions, but the influence degree of the former is much lower than the latter ; （2） The impacts of two factors on carbon emissions are differ- ent between the coastal and inland areas, and the impacts of two factors on carbon emissions are also different at different times. With the passage of time, the influence degree of technological progress on carbon emissions becomes stronger, but the influence degree of industrial structure change on carbon emissions becomes weaker. Compared with the inland areas, the impact of the coastal area＇s technological progress is stronger, but the influence degree of the inland area＇s industrial structure change is larger comparing with the coastal areas. （3） The interactive effect of technology and structure factors has inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, the robustness of this interactive effect is confirmed by the sub - samples of differ- ent period and different areas. This paper provides a new perspective for understanding the changes of China＇s carbon emis- sions, and also has the enlightenment significance on how to coordinate the technical and structural factors to establish a win -win relationship between economic growth and environmental protection.