环境规制对农业科技创新传导机制的实证分析——兼与“波特假说”的比较

Empirical Analysis on the Conductive Mechanism of Environmental Regulation to Innovation of Agricultural Science and Technology—A Comparison with“Potter Hypothesis”

"波特假说"论证了环境规制和科技创新的关系,认为环境规制有利于科技的创新且对科技创新的短期效应为负,而长期动态效应为正。运用安徽省的生产数据对环境规制对农业科技创新的传导机制进行了验证,并与"波特假说"进行了比较,分析了原因。建立了一个滞后变量回归模型验证了环境规制对农业科技创新的传导机制和传导效果,模型估计结果显示环境规制有利于农业科技创新,这和"波特假说"是一致的;但和波特假说不同的是,环境规制对农业科技创新的短期效应为正,长期动态效应(滞后1、2、3期)也为正。从农业科技创新的主体不同以及农业科技创新过程的复杂性和风险性方面对形成这一差异的原因进行了分析。在农业污染条件下,政府需要积极面对环境问题,主动进行科技创新,提高产品质量和竞争力,以实现整个社会福利的最大化和社会经济效益的最优化。

＂Potter hypothesis＂ demonstrates the relationship between environmental regulation and technological innova- tion. The hypothesis believes that environmental regulation is conducive to scientific and technological innovation： the short -term effect is negative while the long- term dynamic effect is positive. Compared with the Potter hypothesis, this paper verifies the conduction mechanism of environmental regulation by the data of Anhui Province, also analyzes the causes. It develops a lagged variable regression model which verified the conductive＂ mechanism and its effect of the regulation on the innovation. Estimation result of the model shows that environmental regulation is conducive to the innovation , which is consistent with the Potter hypothesis; however, the short -term effect of environmental regulation is positive, and the long - term dynamic effect （ lag 1, 2, 3） too. From the complexity of the subject of innovation and the different technology in- novation process in agriculture, this paper analyzes the differences and its causes. In the condition of agricultural pollution, the government must face the environmental problems, conduct the innovation initiatively, improve the quality and compet- itiveness of product so that to achieve the maximization of social welfare and social economic benefits.