异质性雇佣成本、失业波动与货币政策——Evans规则在我国具有适用性吗?

Empirical Studies on the Impact of Aging Population on Government Debt Risk-Analysis of Dynamic Panel Data in 20 Countries

基于发展中国家非正规部门大量存在的事实,通过对Blanchard&Gali(2010)模型的扩展,本文建立了一个含有非正规部门的多部门异质性雇佣成本模型。研究发现,非正规部门与异质性雇佣成本的引入,使得基准的新凯恩斯主义模型发现的"天赐的巧合"并不存在。在此基础上,通过引入对失业做出反应的Evans规则,本文发现,Evans规则下货币政策冲击具有更强的冲击性效应,并且其造成的社会福利损失相对较小。在失业问题日益突出且"失业回滞"削弱了劳动力市场自我修复能力的背景下,采用类似于Evans规则的政策机制将有利于缓解失业并减少政策造成的社会福利损失。然而,由于失业统计工作的滞后限制了这一政策机制在我国的适用性。

This paper adopts a multi-sector model with informal sectors and heterogeneous hiring cost, which leads to the conclusion that the divine coincidence proposed in basic new Keynesian model does not exist. We compare the effect of basic policy regime and the Evans rule that reacts to unemployment. The result shows that under the Evans rule, the effect of monetary policy would be much better than that in basic policy regimes, with much less social welfare loss compared with the basic policy regime. Since the registered urban unemployment rate can not reflect the real unemployment in our economy, and the real unemployment rate in informal sectors can not computed, these factors restrict the Evans rule in China ’s monetary policy practice.