人口老龄化对政府债务风险影响的实证研究——基于20个发达国家动态面板数据的分析

Empirical Study on the Impact of Aging Population on Government Debt Risk:Based on the Dynamic Panel Data from 20 Developed Countries

近年来,许多国家政府债务快速增加,债务风险明显上升,甚至引发债务危机。对发达国家来说,人口老龄化是导致政府债务风险攀升的最重要因素之一。本文选取20个发达国家作为样本,通过动态面板模型分析人口老龄化对政府债务风险的影响。研究结果发现,人口老龄化程度越高,政府债务风险越高;银行危机明显提高政府债务风险;经济增长速度越快,政府债务风险越低。为此,建议我国政府及早采取措施防止人口老龄化带来政府债务风险上升。

In recent years, many countries are witnessing rapid increase in government debt, leading to significant increase in the debt risk and even a debt crisis. For developed countries, the aging population is one of the most important factors leading to the risk of rising government debt. The paper selected a sample of 20 countries to analyze the impact of aging population on government debt risks through dynamic panel models. The results found that the higher the degree of aging population, the higher the risk of government debt; banking crises significantly increased the risk of government debt; the higher the growth rate, the lower the risk of government debt. Therefore, the government is suggested to take early measures to address the impact of aging population and prevent the risk of government debt.