经济均衡的产业结构与人民币内部实际汇率

Research on the Equilibrium Industrial Structure and the RMB Internal Real Exchange Rate

本文探讨了经济均衡的产业结构和内部实际汇率。理论分析指出,经济均衡的内部实际汇率和产业结构主要由无差异效用曲线、生产可能性边界和储蓄率决定;外部实际汇率贬值加速生产可能性边界扁平化扩张,若消费偏好不变,当生产可能性边界扁平化扩张时,服务业对工业的实际产出比下降,内部实际汇率上升;在其他条件不变的情况下,当消费偏好从服务转向工业品时,内部实际汇率倾向于贬值。实证分析支持理论结论。

This paper studies the equilibrium industrial structure and the RMB internal real exchange rate. Theoretical analysis shows that industrial structure and internal real exchange rate are mainly determined by indifference curve, production probability frontier and saving ratio. Depreciation of external real exchange rate may accelerate the flattening expansion of production probability frontier, on condition of unchanged consumption preference, while the production ratio of service to manufacture might decrease, and the internal real exchange rate might appreciate. When consumption preference move from manufacturing goods towards service, ceteris paribus, internal exchange rate might depreciate. Empirical evidence supports these theoretical conclusions.