美日汇率对我国经济发展动力的短期影响分析

Analysis on the Short-term Impact of the Exchange Rate of US Dollar and Japanese Yen on China s Economy

汇率对一国经济发展具有重要的作用。本文选取2005年1月至2013年9月数据,在IS-LM-BP理论框架基础上,运用FAVAR计量模型,分析了美元、日元兑人民币汇率对我国经济发展的影响。结果发现,美元、日元兑人民币汇率对我国经济发展的影响相似,但经济发展受美元兑人民币汇率影响更大。美元或日元兑人民币汇率上升,短期内我国经济将发生如下变化:消费者信心指数增大、CPI上涨、国际资本流动交错变化、利率上升、房地产投资减少、净出口增加。

Exchange rate is very important to an economy. Based on IS-LM-BP model and data between January 2005 and September 2013, this paper tried to use the FAVAR model to analyse the influence of Dollar and Yen exchange rate on our economy. We found that, the influence of the Dollar exchange rate and the Yen exchange rate are almost the same in all fields though the degree may differ. The rise of the Dollar and Yen exchange rate may lead to the rise of consumer confidence index, CPI, interest rate and net exports as well as the decrease of real estate investment and the changes of international capital flows.