基于事故树的道路交通安全风险研究

On the Road Traffic Safety Risk Based on Accident Tree

为了研究引发道路交通事故的主要因素,探索和总结出预防和减少交通事故的对策。笔者在大量道路交通事故成因及预防措施的基础上,建立了事故树,描述了道路交通事故树中的顶上事件、中间事件和基本事件,将道路交通事故树中的基本事件划分为四个最小径集。通过对影响道路交通事故的人、车、道路和环境等主要因素的分析,逐步寻找肇致道路交通事故的最根本因素。又基于对这些基本事件的结构重要度分析,针对性地提出"以人为本",逐步改善车和道路环境的安全状况等举措,从而在全社会营造良好的交通安全环境,以期望预防和减少道路交通事故的发生。

In order to study the main factors of road traffic accidents, this paper explores and summarizes the strategies to prevent and reduce traffic accidents. Based on a large number of road traffic accident causes and prevention measures, the author establishes a fault tree, describes the top event, intermediates events and basic events in the road accident tree. The basic events of road traffic accidents in the tree is divided into four least path set. Through the analysis of the effect of the main factors including people, vehicle, road and environment on the road traffic accident, the most fundamental factor in road accidents is gradually found. And based on analyzing the structure importance of these basic events, the ＂people-oriented＂ measures are put forward and the car and road environment security status are gradually improved, so as to create a good environment for the traffic safety in the whole society to prevent and reduce the road traffic accidents.