模糊熵权综合评价模型在阜阳市水资源承载力综合评价中的应用

Application of Entropy Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model in Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Fuyang City

为定量评价阜阳市水资源承载力状况,并科学指导该地区水资源综合规划和管理工作,根据阜阳市水资源实际情况,从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个角度,共选取16个评价指标,构建有区域特色的水资源承载力评价指标体系。构造模糊熵权模型综合评价了阜阳市2009~2013、2020、2030年及2011年各县区的水资源承载力。结果表明,人均水资源量、单位面积水资源量、供水模数、污水处理率是影响阜阳市水资源承载力的主要因素,整体上2011年阜阳市的水资源承载力接近饱和,与实际情况相符;为保障阜阳市水资源的可持续发展,需制定合理的水资源管理和调水工程措施。

In order to assess the water resources carrying capacity of Fuyang quantitatively and guide scientifically the water resources planning and management, we build the assessment system to evaluate the water resources carrying ca- pacity of Fuyang in the perspective of water resources, society, economy, ecological environment. An entropy fuzzy com- prehensive evaluation model is established to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Fuyang from 2009 to 2013, 2020, 2030 and the data of counties/cities which belong to Fuyang in 2011 respectively. The results show that water re- sources per capita, per unit area of water resources, water supply modulus, sewage treatment rate are the main factors for influencing the water resources carrying capacity of Fuyang; water resources carrying capacity of Fuyang in 2011 is close to saturation on the whole, which is in accordance with actual situation. For ensuring sustainable development of Fuy- ang＇s water resources, it should formulate the reasonable water resources management strategy and water diversion project.