摘要
准确评估上海地区的太阳能资源状况对于当地太阳能资源的开发利用有重要意义。根据中国气象局提供的上海地区多年太阳辐射观测数据,评估当地太阳能资源,结果表明上海地区光伏资源丰富、稳定度较高,适合建设光伏电站。为满足缺乏直接辐射和散射辐射数据的地区推算总辐射中直、散分量的需要,结合2001~2010年上海地区经过严格质量控制的总、直、散观测样本序列,针对三种经典＂直散分离＂模型,通过拟合散射比Hd/H与清晰度指数Kt的函数关系,修正得到适合上海市及周边地区的散射辐射量推算方法,并利用2011年的实测数据对该方法进行独立样本预报验证,其平均百分比误差小于5%,可为光伏发电系统设计、功率预报提供指导和借鉴。
Accurate evaluation of solar energy resources situation in the region of Shanghai has an important guidance for exploitation and utilization of solar energy resources. According to the solar radiation measured data of Shanghai pro- vided by China Meteorological Administration, the local solar resources are assessed, which shows that the photovoltaic resources in Shanghai City is rich and stable, and it is suitable for the construction of photovoltaic power station. To sat isfy the mass area lacking observation of beam and diffuse radiation calculation on beam and diffuse component, using the sample sequence consisting of the total, beam and diffuse observation in Shanghai through strict quality control during 2001-2010, three classic ＂beam-diffuse separated＂ models are deeply analyzed. Through fitting function relationship be- tween Hd/H and Kt, the method to estimate the amount of diffuse radiation for Shanghai and the surrounding area is ob tained and it is validated by the measured data in 2011. Compared to the measured data, the error is less than 5%. The pro posed method can provide guidance and reference for the design of photovoltaic power generation system and power prediction.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2015年第5期207-210,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51307105)
上海高校青年教师培养资助计划项目(ZZsdl13016)
关键词
太阳能
评估
预报
散射辐射
方法
solar energy
evaluation
forecast
diffuse radiation
method
