矿产预测中的不确定性评估方法与应用:以赣北冷水坑矿区为例

Evaluation of information uncertainty in mineral resource prediction and assessment-Take Gan North Lengshuikeng ore field as example

矿产预测过程一方面应用地质成矿基础理论,另一方面充分结合地质、地球化学、地球物理、遥感等信息数据所反映的成矿规律及蕴含信息,而信息处理及预测过程存在一定程度的不确定性,因此不确定性的正确评估对找矿预测工作和矿业经济具有重要意义。本文分析了矿产预测不确定性的来源和一般评价方法,从预测过程的内部影响因素和地质影响因素两个方面出发,提出了基于模糊集理论的矿产预测不确定性评价方法,并将其在赣北冷水坑矿区三维矿产预测中进行了应用。该方法对预测的五个远景区不确定性评估效果良好,与实际地质情况一致,从而验证了评价方法的有效性和三维预测方法的可行性。

Mineral prediction uses the geologic metallogenic theory ,on the other hand ,and combines fully geological ,geochemical ,geophysical and remote sensing data ,and so on .There is a certain degree of uncertainty in the processing and the prediction of information .Therefore ,it is important for ore prediction and mining industry economics that estimates correctly uncertainty .This paper analyzes the source of uncertainty in mineral resource prediction and general evaluation method ,and proposes a general method of uncertainty evaluation for mineral resources prediction taking Gan North Lengshuikeng ore field as an example ,which starts from two aspects of the internal factors and the forecast of geological factor .The methoed get a good result which consistent with the actual geological conditions for five prospective area , therefore ,verify the validity of the evaluation method and the feasible of three dimensional prediction method .