鄂尔多斯准格尔旗耕地动态变化及驱动力研究

Dynamic Change of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces in Zhungeer

根据鄂尔多斯市准格尔旗1988-2012年的统计资料,计算耕地资源变动情况,准格尔旗耕地总面积呈先增加后减少趋势,1988年到2000年耕地面积呈增长趋势,年增加耕地面积为361.08hm2,2000年至2012年期间,准格尔旗耕地面积呈逐年减少趋势,年平均减少312.92hm2,人均耕地面积呈减少趋势,年均减少19.05 hm2/人。利用主成分方法,分析影响准格尔旗耕地变化的驱动因子,将其概括为人口经济、产业和农业科技因子,取三个因子变量的方差贡献率为权重,计算得到耕地利用变化的综合得分为:F=0.7311*F1+0.1784*F2+0.0905*F3。将耕地面积标准化处理,作为因变量(Y),三大驱动力因子作为自变量,得到的回归方程为:Y=0.71F1+0.629F2+0.38F3+0.285。

According the statistical data of zhungeer ordos city from 1988 to 2012,to calculate the changing situation of cultivated land resources.The total area of cultivated land showed a trend of increasing firstly and de-creasing later.Totally,the cultivated land area had been increasing 361.08 hm2 per year from 1988 to 2000,how-ever,during 2000 to 2012,the cultivated land area showed a trend of decreasing by an average of 312.92 hm2 year by year.Average arable land area reduced 19.05 hm2 by person per year.Using the principal component method to analyze the driving factors of cultivated land changing that affected Zhungeer.It summarized as the population eco-nomic,industrial and agricultural science and technology factor.Taking three factors variable of the variance con-tribution rate as weight,calculating the comprehensive score of cultivated land changing：F =F2 ＋0.1784＊0.1784＊0.7311＊F1 F3 .Processing standardization for cultivated land as the dependent variable （Y）,the three major driving factors as independent variables,the regression equation is：Y =0.71F1 F2 F3 ＋0.285 ＋0.38 ＋0.629）.