城市空间扩张转型与新区形成时机——西安实证分析与讨论

URBAN SPATIAL EXPANSION TRANSFORMATION AND NEW URBAN DISTRICT ESTABLISHMENT: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION ON XI'AN CITY

以西安为例,在对城市用地、人口、经济等扩张规模特征定量评价的基础上,通过城市空间扩张与新区形成时机的耦合分析,进而对设立城市新区时机进行理论探讨。认为城市空间突变式扩张时机(空间结构转型)与城市空间扩张速率和人口—城市扩张弹性指数之间具有强相关性,与经济—城市扩张弹性指数之间的联系性不强。当城市空间扩张速率和人口—城市扩张弹性指数处于上升增长状态时,就有必要通过设立城市新区来缓解压力(降低城市空间扩张速率或者减小人口—城市扩张弹性指数),并且每次压力反弹的时间不断缩短,强度不断增强,表现为"反波浪"的发展模式。

Based on a case study on Xi＇an City and quantitative assessment on the expansion characteristics of urban land, population, economy, and so on, this paper analyzes the coupling relationship between urban spatial expansion and new urban district establishment, and further explores the time node for establishing new urban districts in theory. It concludes that there is a strong correlation between the optimal timing of new urban district establishment （spatial structural transformation） and urban spatial expansion rate, the population-urban expansion elasticity index; yet a weak correlation between the optimal timing of new urban district establishment and the economy- urban expansion elasticity index. The ＂anti-wave＂model is formed when urban spatial expansion rate and the population-urban expansion elasticity iridex are rising, and rebound times become continuously shortened and intensity strengthened, which shows that it is high time to relieve the pressure （reducing the urban spatial expansion rate or the population- urban expansion elasticity index） by establishing new urban districts.