转型期的中国经济波动特征

Business cycle fluctuations in China during the transition period

本文使用1978—2013年的中国宏观经济数据,从总需求、产业、生产力、就业与工资、价格水平、货币与利息6个方面考察了改革开放以来我国经济波动的规律。不同于已有的研究结果,本文发现中国经济波动具有明显的"转型经济"特征,主要体现在以下两个方面。一是经济周期大致可分为两个阶段:1978—1990年和1991—2013年。前一阶段,主要是供给面因素造成经济波动,且波动率较大。后一阶段,经济波动表现为需求驱动型,波动幅度明显减弱。二是第一产业就业人数与第二、三产业就业人数之和的比值具有明显的反周期特征。这反映了在我国的工业化进程中,农村剩余劳动力在空间上频繁迁移的特点,即宏观经济景气时,农村剩余劳动力迁移到城市;反之,则迁移回农村。

The paper examines the business cycle during the reform and opening up period in China from 6aspects of total demand, industry, productivity, employment and wage, price level, currency and interest, by using the macroeconomic data of China from 1978 to 2013. Compared to the existing results, we find that there are two main features of China＇ s business cycle. Firstly, the transitional period falls into two stages, the first stage is from 1978 to 1990, in which the economic fluctuations are attributable to supply shock, while in the latter stage beginning from 1991 to present, the volatility of the output becomes smaller and mainly be driven by the demand shock. Secondly, the ratio of the employee in the first industry to that in the second and tertiary industry is strongly counter-cyclical, which shows the phenomenon that the rural surplus labor force flow into the city when the economy is prosperous, otherwise return back to the countryside.