中国农村居民电价的关键影响因素及系统动力学仿真分析

A Study on Key Determinants and Simulation Analysis of Chinese Rural Residential Electricity Price Based on System Dynamics

中国农村居民电价的影响因素复杂,我们以分析影响因素及其传导机理为基础,借助系统动力学原理建立了动态仿真模型。该模型可以对主要影响因素、上网电价等农村居民电价形成的主要环节变量、各因素对农村居民电价的影响程度等进行仿真分析。对政府辅助分析农村居民电价政策的调整理由、科学选择调整幅度和时间、合理推进电价政策的市场化改革等具有一定理论和实际指导价值。

Factors affecting the electricity price of Chinese rural residents are various. In this paper, we first analyze the factors that impact electricity price and their conduction mechanism, and then establish a dynamic simulation model based on system dynamics. Simulation analysis can be carried out on this model, including major influence factors, variables of the major parts affecting rural electricity tariff, like on-grid price, and the degree of influence by each factor, which can provide some theoretical and practical references for the government to analyze whether the rural residents electricity tariff should be adjusted or not, ensure proper price adjustments fluctuation range and time, and promote market-oriented reforms in electricity pricing.