城市负债的效应及测评研究进展与展望

A LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE INFLUENCE AND ASSESSEMENT OF CITY INDEBTEDNESS IN THE CONTEXT OF RAPID URBANIZATION

要:全球城市化进程的加速使得用于城市发展建设的资金规模日益扩大,特别是通过现代化融资借贷手段为城市发展筹集资金的方式给城市建设提供了巨大的支持和动力。但是,全球经济金融危机和地区性主权债务危机的蔓延,也使得城市债务的累积和扩大问题愈发严重。为了更加清晰地了解城市负债的影响效应机制和测度预警内容与方法,为城市的健康可持续发展提供指导和借鉴,本文对相关内容研究进行了文献梳理和分析总结,并展望了进一步研究的重点方向。结果表明:国外的研究已取得了不少成果,而国内的研究尚处于初期阶段,研究视角较局限,缺乏多学科、广领域、立体层次的研究。因此,未来研究应注重从人文地理学的角度,综合分析城市负债对于城市发展的影响路径、累积效应、互动耦合作用等,通过多种分析方法对多层次尺度的数据进行更加细化深入和全面的分析,探索城市负债和经济社会发展的时空分异格局、演变规律和作用机理。

In this paper, a relatively comprehensive literature review, including the influence of city indebted- ness on urban development and the relevant index systems and early-warning models and approaches, was stated, on the basis of which the future focuses and prospects were proposed. The results showed that great progress has been made on the influence, the measurements, and the early-warning monitoring systems of city indebtedness, especially, research on the methods and technologies of debt risk assessment and early- warning monitoring in advanced countries can be used as references for Chinese domestic debt management. At the same time, under the background of advanced market economy and relatively mature urban develop- ment, studies in advanced countries have been gradually penetrating and integrating with other disciplines, such as geography, sociology, resources and environment and ecology, besides their great success which has been achieved already in the economic field. However, Chinese domestic research is still at the primary stage, and mainly focuses on economics, which lacks of creative studies from a multi-disciplinary and multi- level dimensional perspective integrated with geography, sociology, resources and environment, ecology, and even systematics research. And the existing studies mainly choose some large scale research objectives such as a country, a nation, a region, a province, or a district, but not a city or a town at a smaller scale.