财政收支视角下的江西公共服务——基于EG两步法和误差修正模型分析

The Public Service of Jiangxi Province under the Perspective of Financial Revenue and Expenditure——Based on the Analysis of EG Two-step Method and Error Correction Model

财政收支的长期均衡关系影响到公民享受公共服务的福利。通过运用EG两步法检验江西省1978-2012年间财政收支之间是否存在长期均衡关系,结合误差修正模型分析江西省财政收支的短期和长期关系。实证结果表明:江西省财政收支存在长期均衡关系,当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,误差修正项以0.337007的力度进行反向调整,使得非均衡状态向均衡状态回复。进行格兰杰因果关系检验,发现江西财政支出是财政收入的格兰杰因果关系,说明作用于公共服务上的财政支出能够带动国民经济的增长,在一定程度上带来财政收入的增加。

The long-run equilibrium relationship between revenues and expenditures affects the citizens enjoy the welfare of public services. We use of EG two-step method to inspect whether there is long-term equilibrium relationship between the revenue and expenditure in Jiangxi province between 1978-2012 ,and combine with the error correction model to analyze the short-term and long-term relationship between revenue and expenditure. The empirical results show that：there is really a long-run equilibrium relationship between the revenue and expendi-ture,when short -term fluctuations deviate from long -run equilibrium,the error correction term will adjust by 0. 337007 in contrast in order to pull the non-equilibrium to equilibrium. Granger causality test finds that the ex-penditure is the Granger causality of revenue,in other words,expenditure acting on public services can drive the growth of national economy,to some extent,it can bring increased revenue.