影子银行、信用创造与货币政策传导机制

A Study on the Shadow Banking,Credit Creation and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

中国的影子银行规模已经达到GDP的一半,因此研究与之相关的问题有重要的现实意义。影子银行具有特殊的信用创造功能,能影响中国货币政策的有效性。选取2008~2013年的月度数据,通过建立VAR模型、Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法,实证研究影子银行在计量角度上对货币政策各层次的影响效果。结果显示：影子银行规模与通货膨胀率、广义货币供应量存在长期稳定的关系;影子银行规模对物价有较强烈冲击,同时对货币供应量有时滞性的长期影响,在一定时间内对经济增长有负面影响,这说明需要出台相应的措施加强对影子银行的监管。

Shadow banking scale has reached half of GDP in China, solving related problems have been impor-tant practical significance.Shadow Banks have special credit creation function, which affects the effectiveness of monetary policy.This paper selects 2008~2013 monthly data, by mens of the establishment of the VAR model, Jo-hansen cointegration test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition methods, that measure the effects of monetary policy.Research results shows that the shadow banking size with the rate of inflation and money supply have long-term and stable relationship;Shadow banking size has a strong impact on prices, at the same time to have a time lag of money supply long-term effects, and it has a negative impact on economic growth in a certain period of time, this suggests that corresponding measures needed to strengthen the regulation of the shadow bank-ing.