启东市1972-2011年胰腺癌生存率分析

Pancreas cancer survival rates in Qidong during the years 1972-2011

目的 对江苏省启东市1972-2011年全人群胰腺癌登记病例进行生存率分析,为预后评价及防治提供依据.方法 3 279例胰腺癌登记病例的生存（死亡）情况随访截止于2012年4月30日;剔除只有医学死亡证明书病例,实际纳入3 272例.用SURV3.01软件计算观察生存率（OS）及相对生存率（RS）.结果 胰腺癌患者总体1、5、10、15、20、25、30年OS分别为12.69％、4.87％、3.76％、3.07％、2.66％、1.94％、1.28％,其中男性为12.39％、4.67％、3.41％、2.77％、2.22％、1.35％、0.75％,女性为13.08％、5.12％、4.22％、3.45％、3.28％、3.00％、2.40％;1、5、10、15、20、25、30年RS分别为13.34％、6.30％、6.47％、7.34％、9.27％、10.33％、10.65％,其中男性为13.06％、6.14％、6.06％、6.91％、8.06％、7.44％、6.44％,女性为13.70％、6.47％、6.99％、7.88％、10.91％、15.25％、19.12％.15～34岁、35～44岁、45 ～54岁、55 ～64岁、65 ～74岁及75岁以上各年龄组的5年OS分别为17.81％、6.34％、8.32％、5.04％、3.75％、3.82％;5年RS分别为17.97％、6.47％、8.65％、5.47％、4.68％、8.03％.5年OS由1973-1977年的2.01％提高到2003-2007年的5.11％.结论 启东市40年间胰腺癌的总体生存率稍有提高,但增幅不大.

Objective Survival rates of pancreas cancer during the years 1972-2011,from a population-based cancer registry in Qidong,were analyzed in order to provide information for the prognosis assessment and control of this disease.Methods The deadline of the last follow-up for survival status of 3279 registered cases was April 30th,2012.DCO （death certificates only） cases were excluded,leaving 3272 cases for survival analysis.Cumulative observed survival rate （OS） and relative survival rate （RS） were calculated by the SURV3.01 software.Results The 1-,5-,10-,15-,20-,25-,and 30-year OSs were 12.69％,4.87％,3.76％,3.07％ 2.66％,1.94％ and 1.28％,respectively,and OSs in male were 12.39％,4.67％,3.41％,2.77％ 2.22％,1.35％,0.75％,and in female were 13.08％,5.12％,4.22％,3.45％,3.28％,3.00％ 2.40％.The 1-,5-,10-,15-,20-,25-,and 30-year RSs were 13.34％,6.30％,6.47％,7.34％ 9.27％,10.33％ and 10.65％,respectively;and the RSs in male were 13.06％,6.14％,6.06％ 6.91％,8.06％,7.44％,6.44％,and in female were 13.70％,6.47％,6.99％,7.88％,10.91％ 15.25％,19.12％.The 5-year OS rates at age groups of 15-34,35-44,45-54,55-64,65-74 and ＞75 were 17.81％,6.34％,8.32％,5.04％,3.75％ and 3.82％,respectively.The 5-year RSs were 17.97％,6.47％,8.65％,5.47％,4.68％ and 8.03％.Five-year OSs increased from 2.01％ in 1973-1977 to 5.11％ in 2003-2007.Conclusions The overall survival rate of pancreas cancer has increased during the past 40 years in Qidong,but the improvement is marginal.