担保机制对固定收益企业债信用等级迁移的影响

The Effect of Guarantee on Credit Rating Transitions for Corporate Bonds with Fixed-income

采用logistic回归模型对担保机制就固定收益企业债信用等级迁移的影响予以检验,研究结果表明,企业偿债能力和盈利能力指标的变化都对企业债的信用等级迁移具有显著影响,尤其应该关注资产负债率的变化,而在财务指标一定的条件下,没有抵押或担保的企业债发生信用降级的概率会增大,说明担保机制的存在确实会使得担保债获得更高的信用等级。

This paper just tests the effect that logistic regression model has on the transition of credit rating.The results show that solvency ratios and profitability ratios do affect the transition of credit rating,especially the asset-liability ratio.Moreover,with the same financial status,corporate bonds without guarantee may face larger probability of downgrade.So it proves that guarantee mechanism does help corresponding corporate bonds got higher credit rating.