新型城镇化对产业结构升级的影响效应分析

Analysis of Influential Effect towards Upgrading of Industrial Structure from New- type Urbanization

本文通过构建新型城镇化综合指标体系,将新型城镇化划分为人口城镇化、社会城镇化、经济城镇化以及环境城镇化4个方面;然后利用产业结构高级化率来衡量产业结构升级,并引入控制变量建立动态面板模型;最后通过GMM估计分析东、中、西部地区各城镇化对产业结构升级的影响。结果表明:人口、经济城镇化正向推动3个地区产业结构升级;社会城镇化正向推动中西部地区产业结构升级;而环境城镇化正向推动东西部地区产业结构升级。此外,科学文化财政支出对中西部地区产业结构升级具有正向效应;金融业发展积极推动东中部地区产业发展;前一期的产业结构高级化对各地区产业发展都有显著的正向推动作用;而市场化程度对各地区产业发展的作用却截然不同。

Through building a comprehensive indicator system for new- type urbanization, this paper divided new - type urbaniza- tion into urbanization of population, society, economy and environment. Next by utilizing advancing industrial structure, it measured the upgrading of industrial structure, and also built dynamic panel model via introducing control variable. Finally by GMM estimation, it ana- lyzed the influences towards upgrading of industrial structure from urbanization of east, middle and west areas. The result showed that ur- banization of population and economy drove upgrading of industrial structure in three areas positively, and the urbanization of society drove upgrading of industrial structure in middle and west areas positively, and the urbanization of environment drove upgrading of industrial struc- ture in east and west areas positively. In addition, the fiscal expenditure from scientific culture had positive effect to upgrading of industrial structure, the development of financial industry drove industries in east and middle areas positively, and the upgrading of industrial struc- ture which was one order behind had prominent positive driving effect to industrial development in each area, and the marketization degree had entirely different effects on industrial development in three areas.