我国地方政府债务风险与对策建议

Risks of China's Local-governmental Debt and Countermeasures

当前,我国地方债务总体规模不大,但偿债压力的区域差异较大。银行信贷是地方债务主要资金来源,一旦地方债务出现违约,违约地区中小金融机构受冲击最大,城投债在2015—2021年面临较大的偿债压力。文章认为,我国地方债务面临三大风险:一是地方政府的或有负债风险规模较大,风险难以监控;二是地方政府债务资金使用缺乏监督和约束机制;三是地方融资平台规范不足。文章建议从以下四方面管控地方债务风险:一是从法理上明确地方政府债务的举债主体,分割地方政府和地方融资平台的债务责任,妥善处理存量债务;二是对全国地方债务实行上限控制,根据各地区存量债务风险和财力状况分配各地方举债额度;三是发行市政债券或PPP融资模式,为地方基础设施建设融资;四是选择多元化的债务负担指标,合理衡量地方政府短期和长期债务。

At present, the overall risk of China＇s local-governmental debt is not large, but the regional difference is obvious. Bank credit is a major source of local-governmental debt financing. Once the local-governmental debt default, small and medium-sized financial institutions in default region will be shocked seriously. In addition, the urban construction investment bonds will face bigger debt service pressure from 2015-2021. On the whole, China is facing three local-governmental debt risk including larger local government contingent liability risks and difficulties in monitoring them, local-governmental debt use lacking of supervision and restraint mechanism and local financing platform lacking of specification. As local-governmental debt management, we should firstly definite the legal subject of local-governmental debt, segment local financing platform and local government debt responsibility, properly handle the existing stock of debt. Secondly, the local debt scale should be in upper control according to regional stock of debt risk and financial situation. Debt limit should be distributed in differentiation. Thirdly, issuance of municipal bonds, PPP financing model will necessarily finance the local infrastructure construction. Fourthly, diversity index will be used to measure short-term and long-term reasonable debt burden.